Climate Threats, Fragility, and Conflict Risks
How do the set of countries that are most threatened for heightened climate risks relate to the set of fragile or conflict‐ affected states?
Countries with high fragility:
The risks of conflict are already very high due to many other factors
The consequences of climate change join those factors
Countries with low fragility:
Existing macro-level attributes of state and society suggest potential for mitigating any conflict risks that climate threats may cause
Programming Implications:
In fragile and non-fragile states, programming to address climate threats should be sensitive to its impact on preexisting conditions (existing mitigators or vulnerabilities) that relate to violent conflict